2 Stocks Driving the Quiet Bull Market Inside Energy

Oil prices have been stagnant for months. WTI crude is stuck in a narrow range. Exploration and production stocks (E&Ps) have gone nowhere. And most people assume that means “energy is dead” again.

But that broad-brush thinking misses something important:

Refiners are having their best operating environment in years.

This is the quiet bull market inside energy … and two of the best-positioned names are featured below. They’re both A rated according to our Zen Ratings system.

Here’s why you should care: 

Energy is now just ~3% of the S&P 500, its lowest weight in decades. Meanwhile, tech dominates most investor portfolios. Adding selective exposure to refiners offers diversification, strong free cash flow, and earnings that don’t depend on AI hype cycles or Fed pivots.

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Here’s why refiners matter now … and why THESE 2 picks stand out. 

Why Refiners Thrive When Oil Is Weak

Most investors lump all energy companies together, but refiners operate on a completely different economic engine from oil producers:

• E&Ps want high oil prices.
• Refiners want cheap, stable oil prices.

A refiner’s core profitability comes from the crack spread: the difference between the price of crude oil (their input) and the price of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other refined products (their output).

When crude is weak or stagnant but product demand stays firm, crack spreads widen. That’s exactly the environment we’re in now.

A few structural tailwinds reinforce this:

• Global refining capacity has shrunk due to regulations, ESG pressure, and pandemic-era shutdowns.
• Demand for diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemicals remains strong, especially with rising air travel.
• U.S. refiners have scale and export advantages that most international peers can’t replicate.

This is why refiners have been quietly outperforming even as headlines suggest energy is struggling.

Stock #1: Par Pacific (PARR)

Par Pacific is one of the most unusual refiners in the country … and that uniqueness is a competitive advantage.

PARR operates major refining assets in:

• Hawaii
• The Pacific Northwest
• The Rocky Mountain region

These markets have limited local competition, high logistical barriers, and elevated demand for jet fuel due to tourism and military presence. Crack spreads in Hawaii frequently outperform national averages, giving PARR structurally higher margins than more commoditized mainland markets.

Meanwhile, PARR has been leveraging its footprint to expand storage, logistics, and retail fuel distribution … all of which support more stable cash flow. For investors looking for mid-cap exposure with high regional pricing power, PARR is one of the cleanest ways to play the refining cycle.

Stock #2: HF Sinclair (DINO)

HF Sinclair (DINO) is the large-cap workhorse of the refining space. It operates complex refineries across the Midcontinent, Southwest, and Mountain regions: areas benefiting from strong diesel demand and favorable crude differentials.

A few standouts:

• Vertical integration through pipelines, terminals, and logistics.
• A growing renewable diesel business that diversifies margin streams.
• Consistent buybacks and dividends, powered by large free cash flow.

If PARR is the differentiated regional play, DINO is the more diversified, scale-driven operator that thrives across cycles.

Of the two, PARR currently rates higher overall, with better Component Grades in Value, Momentum, and Financials. Here are PARR’s Component Grades:

However, DINO has a much higher Artificial Intelligence score. 

Click here to see DINO’s Component Grades.

My Take

For many investors, portfolios have become aggressively tilted toward tech, semiconductors, and AI beneficiaries. Refiners offer something very different:

• Low correlation to tech.
• Strong free cash flow.
• High returns of capital.
• Earnings driven by product demand, not macro narratives.
• Long-term resilience despite the slow-moving EV transition.

And with energy now just 3% of the S&P, refiners help fill a diversification gap that most investors don’t realize they have.

PARR and DINO stand out as two of the best-positioned operators in a segment benefiting from steady demand, shrinking global capacity, wide crack spreads, and rising cash returns.

Click here to add PARR to your watchlist.

Click here to add DINO to your watchlist.

What to Do Next?

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